LITA's trendsters seemed to have some fun—and words of caution—with their predictions for libraries 3–5 years out. All the trend predictions had a clear emphasis on end-user experience over back-end library technology and future-proof, forward-thinking information services over preserving old workflows.
For a complete re-cap of the entire panel discussion, see the ustream video.
Jason Griffey kicked off this round of the discussion with some pretty provocative thoughts about patrons' consumption of information in 3 –5 years. Given that 4G wireless technology will be firmly entrenched by then, most of the population will be walking around with devices that can access the internet at 100mbps, "like having an ethernet cord in your pocket," he said. Media production, consumption, and distribution will dramatically change as ubiquitous access gets faster. For example, he described a super-fast, super-compact book scanner by University of Tokyo researcher Masatoshi Ishikawa. The device can scan pages as fast as you can "riff" them accross the camera. Ishikawa predicts that this technology will soon be contained in hand-held devices. Griffey warned the audience that as soon as information is so easily attained (imagine, he said, if your patrons could come in and instantly scan and store the entire OED), information services will change dramatically.
Monique Sendze predicted that profiling and the death of anonymity would drive technology decisions in libraries over the next 3 –5 years. Because libraries are collecting the same kind of data about their patrons that Amazon collects about its customers, libraries could easily engage in the same kind of massive-scale recommendation engines to effectively give patrons what they want before they ask for it. Although libraries have policies to purge their patron data, when patrons willfully give up that same data to other, much less trustworthy institutions, libraries should be asking themselves what their patrons would likely give up in terms of privacy for a better user experience.
Cindi Trainor claimed that the stat of publishing in the next 3 –5 years will bring in the age of physical object scarcity. Libraries, who have always provided equal access to content that's not equally accessible in other venues, will be challenged to look at what's rare and valuable in the long term and provide equal access to whatever that is.
Joan Frye Williams described a correlation she's observed between the information industry and the energy industry. The former, she said, evolves alongside the latter, and she warned that it's possible and even likely that in the next 3 –5 years, we'll see a massive data spill on the scale of the BP oil spill we're seeing now. Libraries should begin looking at themselves as strategic information reserves on a global scale.
John Blyberg discussed how digital content, copyright, access, and the economy would drive long-term trends in libraries. In coping with the economy, he said, libraries need to admit that they're inefficient at back-end tasks that can easily be automated (think cataloging). On the subject of access, he warned that libraries will miss out if they're not looking at how to corner the content market. For example, he asked, what will libraries that depend on DVD circulation do when DVDs no longer circulate? By concentrating on access to information and not just access to media formats, libraries will be well positioned to deal with their long-term futures.
Lorcan Dempsey closed the panel, predicting that libraries will shift from managing supply of information to managing demand. The supply channels will continue to simplify (through products like his own employer's Web Scale Management Services). Managing demand means providing services that help patrons rank, relate, and recommend content in a desktop or mobile environment. This will involve a community layer to the library on a scale we don't currently see. The mission of libraries, he said in closing, is to help patrons make their own libraries.
